Delta-15 Parity Engine

Delta-15 Parity Engine is a Rust application that executes a dual-sided pre-order strategy on quarter-hour binary prediction markets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. It submits limit bids on both outcome tokens prior to period start and redeems settled positions when markets resolve.

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Overview

The engine targets Polymarket's 15-minute Up/Down markets for major crypto assets. By placing buy orders on both Up and Down tokens at favorable prices before each period begins, it aims to lock in a payoff at settlement when one side settles at $1 per share. Execution is governed by configurable signals and risk controls.

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Architecture

Period Structure

Markets align to 15-minute intervals in Eastern Time (:00, :15, :30, :45). The engine identifies markets via slug patterns:

• btc-updown-15m-{timestamp}
• eth-updown-15m-{timestamp}
• sol-updown-15m-{timestamp}
• xrp-updown-15m-{timestamp}

timestamp is the period start in Unix seconds. The Gamma API is used to locate current and upcoming period markets.

Execution Sequence

1. Pre-order submission — Within place_order_before_mins of the next period, the engine optionally evaluates a signal on the current market. If the signal is favorable, it submits limit buy orders on both Up and Down for the next period. If unfavorable, it skips that period.

2. Fill tracking — Order status is monitored via the CLOB API (or simulated via price vs limit in simulation mode). Per-asset state tracks fills, expiry, and any partial exits.

3. Both sides filled — If the winning side’s price exceeds sell_opposite_above and time remaining is at or below sell_opposite_time_remaining, the engine sells the losing side and holds the winner to resolution.

4. Single-side exposure — If only one side fills, risk controls may trigger: sell the filled side when price reaches danger_price or when danger_time_passed elapses, then cancel the unfilled order.

5. Mid-market orders — When enabled, the engine can also submit limit orders on the current period market using dynamic prices, subject to signal and time conditions.

6. Redemption — A background process checks resolved markets at market_closure_check_interval_seconds and redeems winning positions, updating PnL.

Flow Sketch

Current period (e.g. 2:00–2:15 ET)
    |
    +-- Optional: mid-market orders when signal permits
    |
    +-- Within place_order_before_mins of next period (e.g. 2:13)
            |
            +-- Evaluate signal on current market
            +-- Good signal: place Up + Down limit buys on next period
            +-- Bad signal: skip next period
                    |
                    v
Next period (e.g. 2:15)
    |
    +-- Fills: both / one / none
    +-- Both filled: optional sell-loser strategy, hold winner
    +-- One filled: danger logic, sell + cancel
    +-- Period end: redeem winner, record PnL

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Supported Markets

Asset	Slug pattern	Example
BTC	btc-updown-15m-{ts}	btc-updown-15m-1771007400
ETH	eth-updown-15m-{ts}	eth-updown-15m-1771007400
SOL	sol-updown-15m-{ts}	sol-updown-15m-1771007400
XRP	xrp-updown-15m-{ts}	xrp-updown-15m-1771007400

All four assets are handled in parallel with independent state.

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Capabilities

• Multi-asset execution for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP
• Dual-sided pre-order strategy before each period
• Signal-based gating for pre-orders and mid-market orders
• Sell-loser logic when both sides are filled and winner price is high
• Single-side risk management (price or time-based exit)
• Optional mid-market limit orders on the current period
• Simulation mode using price vs limit for fill logic
• Automatic redemption of settled winning positions
• CLI for manual redemption by condition ID or wallet scan

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Prerequisites

• Rust 1.70 or newer (install via rustup)
• Polymarket CLOB credentials (API key, secret, passphrase)
• Optional: private key and proxy wallet for signing and redemption
• Network access to Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs

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Build and Run

git clone https://github.com/crellos/polymarket-arbitrage-bot-pre-order-15m-markets.git
cd polymarket-arbitrage-bot-pre-order-15m-markets

cargo build --release

Output binary: target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot.

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Configuration

Settings are loaded from config.json by default; use -c or --config to override.

cp config.json.example config.json
# Edit config.json with your Polymarket credentials

Polymarket API

Field	Purpose
gamma_api_url	Gamma API base URL
clob_api_url	CLOB API base URL
api_key, api_secret, api_passphrase	CLOB auth
private_key	Wallet key (hex) for signing; optional if monitoring only
proxy_wallet_address	Proxy wallet for trades and redemption
signature_type	CLOB signature type (e.g. 2)

Strategy

Field	Purpose
price_limit	Limit price for pre-orders (e.g. 0.45)
shares	Size per Up and Down order
place_order_before_mins	Minutes before next period to place pre-orders
check_interval_ms	Main loop interval
simulation_mode	If true, no real orders; fills derived from price vs limit
sell_opposite_above	Min winner price to trigger sell-loser (e.g. 0.84)
sell_opposite_time_remaining	Max minutes left to trigger sell-loser
market_closure_check_interval_seconds	Interval for market resolution checks

Signal

Field	Purpose
enabled	Use signal for pre-orders and mid-market orders
stable_min, stable_max	Good signal: Up/Down in this range
clear_threshold	Bad signal if either side >= this
clear_remaining_mins	Time condition for clear signal
danger_price	Sell matched side when price <= this (one-side risk)
danger_time_passed	Sell after this many minutes with one side only
one_side_buy_risk_management	"price", "time", or "none"
mid_market_enabled	Allow mid-market orders on current period

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Commands

Run engine (live or simulation):

./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot
./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot --config /path/to/config.json

Enable simulation by setting strategy.simulation_mode to true.

Redeem positions:

# Redeem by condition ID
./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot --redeem --condition-id 0x...

# Redeem all redeemable positions for proxy wallet
./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot --redeem

--redeem requires proxy_wallet_address in config.

Logging:

RUST_LOG=info ./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot
RUST_LOG=debug ./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot

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Signal Logic

• Favorable: Up and Down in stable_min–stable_max, no clear condition. Allows pre-orders and (when enabled) mid-market orders.
• Unfavorable: Clear condition (e.g. one side >= clear_threshold near period end). Pre-orders for the next period are skipped.
• Both filled: Sell loser when winner price >= sell_opposite_above and time left <= sell_opposite_time_remaining, then hold winner to resolution.
• One side filled: Apply one_side_buy_risk_management: exit by danger_price or danger_time_passed, then cancel the other order.

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Risk Notice

This software interacts with real funds and live Polymarket APIs.

• No guarantee of profit; historical or simulated performance is not predictive.
• API or connectivity issues may prevent orders or redemption.
• Market risk includes slippage, illiquidity, and resolution rules.
• Secure API keys and private keys; do not commit them to version control.

Use simulation and small sizes before live use.

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Do not run this project. This software is provided for educational and reference purposes only. Running it may result in financial loss, and you assume all responsibility for any consequences of use.